Sound Fiscal Management

Malaysian Federal Government had been having sound fiscal management since Merdeka, considering that economic growth had been steadily achieved which is reflective in the rakyat socio economic stature and quality of life, without the need to issuing USD17.5 billion in a single tranche of sovereign bond to raise money.

Financial Times story:

First Saudi bond sale raises $17.5bn in emerging market record

Debt issue part of a broader plan to shift economy away from its reliance on oil
Read next:
Saudi Arabia to sell up to $17.5bn in debut issue

© Bloomberg

YESTERDAY by: Elaine Moore in London and Simeon Kerr in Dubai
Saudi Arabia has raised $17.5bn for its debut sovereign bond issue, eclipsing Argentina’s bond sale earlier this year to become the largest debt issue by an emerging economy.
Investors put up orders of $67bn, enabling the kingdom to increase the amount borrowed and overtake the $16.5bn raised by Argentina as buyers queued up in search of yield.

“This is clearly a success for the country,” said Richard House, head of emerging markets fixed income at Standard Life Investments.

Saudi Arabia’s entrance into international markets is part of a broader plan to pivot the country’s economy away from its reliance on oil, as prices slump to half the level of two years ago. The sale is expected to herald a pipeline of new deals, including the world’s biggest initial public offering from state oil company Aramco.

“This is very significant moment for the kingdom — until this year it had not held external sovereign debt,” said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank. “They had to issue, given tight domestic liquidity conditions and stretched local funding sources, and we expect to see further issuance going forward — Saudi will become a fixture on global debt markets.”

The multibillion-dollar order book reflected heightened demand for debt issued by emerging markets this year, as interest rates in the developed world remain at historic lows. Argentina, Qatar, Turkey and Mexico have all sold large bond issues and the demand allowed Saudi Arabia to tighten prices. The sale comprised three maturities of five, 10 and 30 years offered at yields of about 2.60 per cent, 3.41 per cent and 4.63 per cent, respectively — slightly below expectations.

“Saudi is an attractive investment, but to be honest nearly every emerging market bond has been a success this year — investors are still desperate for yield,” said Mr House.

According to one investor, Asian buyers were responsible for a significant portion of orders, with investors such as pension funds and insurance companies known to be interested in buying the country’s long-dated bonds.

One investor said the issue was priced at a reasonable level, and would encourage interest in future expected bonds. “Saudi is just one big oil company, right, so there will be managers switching out some of their exposure to get the yield of the Saudi bond,” he said.

The bonds were sold around 40 basis points above debt issued by neighbouring Qatar, which carries a higher credit rating, and around 100 basis point wider than bonds sold by oil companies BP and Shell.

Saudi Arabia would have to embrace a new era of greater transparency as investors pore over its fiscal position and reform programme, he added.

“Bondholders will want to see that Saudi Arabia is continuing its fiscal consolidation — they won’t only want to see debt levels going up,” said Ms Malik.

Saudi Arabia’s economy is forecast to slow this year as oil prices remain low and the country engages in a costly war in Yemen, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting gross domestic product growth of 1.2 per cent this year from 3.5 per cent in 2015.

Related article

IMF cuts Saudi Arabia 2016 growth forecast as oil price stays low
Overall expansion of 1.2% lowest since 2009 as spending cuts hit non-oil sector
The IMF has welcomed the government’s Vision 2030 plan, which seeks to crimp spending, raise new non-oil revenue streams and bolster the private sector.

“This issue is important as Saudi Arabia will be in the market for a number of years, so they need to lay out a predictable plan of where they are going,” said Masood Ahmed, the IMF’s managing director for the Middle East, said in Dubai on Wednesday.

“And they need a credible fiscal consolidation plan — they need to show that they have a plan to bring down their financing needs.

In its pitch to prospective bond investors, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance acknowledged the damage caused to its economy by falling oil prices, which led the government to resume issuing local currency-denominated bonds last year for the first time in almost a decade.

The kingdom faces a budget deficit of 13 per cent of gross domestic product this year, below last year’s 16 per cent deficit, as spending cuts move from capital projects to public sector wage bill. Next year, the deficit is forecast to fall to 9.5 per cent.

Government debt, now at 5 per cent of GDP, is forecast to reach 20 per cent by 2017 as the state relies on borrowing rather than financial reserves to plug the shortfall.

Although oil prices have recovered from the decade-low of less than $30, they have struggled to sustain a rise above $50 per barrel.

Speaking at the Oil & Money energy conference in London on Wednesday, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid al Falih said the oil market had come to the end of a downturn, and that the time was now right to tighten supplies and raise prices.

Citi, HSBC and JPMorgan led the sale of debt on Wednesday, with Bank of China, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Mitsubishi UFJ, and NCB Capital also involved in the issue.


The expected 1.2% growth of the Saudi economy for the year is attributable for the kingdom heavy reliance on the oil and gas industry and the sluggish global market for almost two years has taken a toll even for Saudi.

The expected budget deficit of 13% of Saudi GDP for the year (compared to 16% for the last year) is rather alarming.

The Malaysian Federal Government 2016 budget deficit is 3.1% of GDP. When Prime Minister Dato’ Sri Mohd. Najib Tun Razak took over the reins of the nation in the midst of the global financial crisis pertaining to subprime financial scandal in the West, the Bajet 2010 Federal Government deficit against GDP is 5..2%.

By comparison, the Malaysian Federal Government external borrowings is RM210 billion. That was accumulated through time, with many socio-economic development programs and projects have been successfully managed to be generated from these borrowings.

Of that, RM199.5 billion is in bond.

This is the Bernama online summary on what to expect from this Friday, when Bajet 2017 is tabled in Dewan Rakyat.

Bajet 2017 Akan Mencergaskan Ekonomi Malaysia

Beberapa tingkat di bangunan Kementerian Kewangan masih bercahaya berikutan pasukan bajet dan warga kerja bertungkus lumus bekerja lebih masa bagi menyiapkan laporan Bajet 2017 yang akan dibentangkan Perdana Menteri selaku Menteri Kewangan, Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak di Parlimen Jumaat ini

Oleh Christine Lim

KUALA LUMPUR, (Bernama) — Bajet 2017 akan terus mencergaskan ekonomi Malaysia, walaupun dilihat sebagai yang paling mencabar bagi Perdana Menteri Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.

Ini sejajar dengan kedudukan ekonomi Malaysia yang terdedah kepada ketidaktentuan ekonomi dunia, dengan pertumbuhan empat peratus pada suku kedua tahun ini, merupakan tahap pengembangan paling perlahan sejak suku ketiga 2009 ketika kemuncak krisis kewangan global.

Najib membayangkan kerajaan perlu kreatif dalam menangani kekangan untuk terus menyokong kebajikan rakyat dan menyediakan seberapa banyak bantuan, dalam Bajet 2017.

Oleh itu, kebimbangan rakyat akan ditangani dengan sewajarnya.


Kerajaan perlu mengurus kewangan secara berhemat, dari segi hutang dan defisit fiskal, ekoran unjuran pembayaran dividen yang lebih rendah oleh Petroliam Nasional Bhd dan kutipan cukai yang lebih rendah tahun depan.

Kerajaan juga komited mengurangkan defisit bajet kepada 3.1 peratus daripada Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK) tahun ini, seperti yang dibentangkan dalam pengubahsuaian bajet oleh Najib pada Januari semasa harga minyak mentah sekitar US$30 setong.

Pada harga minyak sekitar US$51 setong sekarang, ia memberikan kerajaan lebih kapasiti bagi meningkatkan perbelanjaan bajet, namun perlu berhemat memandangkan kedudukan kewangan masih dalam kedudukan sukar disebabkan ekonomi yang perlahan.

MIDF Research dalam laporannya yakin sasaran defisit 3.1 peratus itu boleh dicapai menerusi pelbagai langkah yang dilaksanakan setakat ini bagi menurunkan perbelanjaan dan melaksanakan projek pembangunan berasaskan keutamaan.

Risikonya ialah perdagangan dunia dan ekonomi terus lemah yang menjadi halangan utama kepada ekonomi Malaysia.


Berikutan ekonomi dunia yang terus lemah, wujud tekanan dari segi import dan akaun semasa yang akan terus menjejaskan ekonomi dan usaha kerajaan Malaysia untuk meneruskan perbelanjaan pembangunan.

Ekonomi Malaysia dijangkakan tumbuh 4.0-4.5 peratus tahun ini berbanding 5.0 peratus tahun lepas, selari dengan cabaran global, antara lain, angka perdagangan dan ekonomi China yang perlahan, pasaran pekerjaan AS yang lemah, kedudukan ekonomi di zon Euro yang rapuh serta impak pengundian UK untuk meninggalkan blok berkenaan.

Kadar faedah AS yang dijangkakan meningkat juga akan meningkatkan risiko pengalian keluar modal.

HSBC Global Research dalam laporan mengenai ekonomi Asia menyatakan bahawa risiko pengaliran keluar modal juga menjadi semakin ketara disebabkan lebihan akaun semasa semakin menyusut berbanding jangkaaan setakat tahun ini.

Berdasarkan kekangan fiskal, bajet yang dibentangkan pada 21 Okt ini antara lain dijangkakan mengandungi langkah terhad yang sama untuk golongan berpendapatan rendah dan sederhana seperti Bajet 2016.


Bagaimanapun, persekitaran ekonomi global yang masih rapuh akan memaksa kerajaan meningkatkan peruntukan bagi merangsang permintaan domestik dan perbelanjaan pengguna.

Profesor Ekonomi Fakulti Perniagaan Universiti Sunway, Dr Yeah Kim Leng berkata, kekangan fiskal akan menyaksikan keperluan untuk memberi keutamaan perbelanjaan ke atas bidang teras yang penting yang akan menjamin keselamatan sosial serta menjana pertumbuhan perniagaan dan pekerjaan.

“Dengan had ke atas perbelanjaan, terdapat keperluan untuk menangguhkan projek yang tidak memberi kesan segera ke atas ekonomi,” kata Yeah dalam temu bual dengan Bernama.

Bagi memaksimumkan kesan ke atas perbelanjaan, beliau juga mencadangkan kerajaan melaksanakan projek perkongsian awam-swasta.

Yeah menyokong pelepasan cukai atau pemotongan cukai untuk pertengahan 40 peratus isi rumah atau kumpulan M40 bagi menangani peningkatan kos sara hidup.

Peruntukan untuk perumahan, pendidikan, penjagaan kesihatan dan latihan, katanya, adalah amat penting bagi menyokong isi rumah di bawah 40 peratus atau kumpulan B40 itu.

Kategori M40 terdiri daripada mereka yang berpendapatan antara RM3,860 dan RM8,319 sebulan manakal kategori B40 yang berpendapatan dari RM3,855 dan ke bawah.

Bagaimanapun, jangkaan pertumbuhan ekonomi empat hingga 4.5 peratus tahun ini akan terus memberikan peningkatan sederhana kira-kira tiga hingga empat peratus dalam pendapatan kerajaan, kata Yeah dengan menambah, pendapatan tahun depan akan disokong oleh prospek cerah dalam ekonomi global.

Beliau melihat keperluan untuk menawarkan pelbagai insentif bagi merangsang pertumbuhan ekonomi dan mengekalkan keyakian pelabur, di samping menegaskan yang rancangan mengumpul dana melalui lelongan spektrum telekomunikasi juga akan meningkatkan tabungan negara.


Sementara itu, Ketua Pegawai Operasi Perisian Senarai Gaji Dalam Talian, Toine Vaessen berharap bajet akan datang akan memberi tumpuan kepada membantu perusahaan kecil dan sederhana (PKS), berikutan sumbangannya yang semakin meningkat bagi merangsang ekonomi.

“PKS adalah nadi ekonomi, menggunakan lebih 65 peratus daripada keseluruhan tenaga kerja di Malaysia dan menyumbang 36.3 peratus daripada keseluruhan KDNK,” kata Vaessen kepada Bernama.

Dalam satu kajian yang dijalankan baru-baru ini mengenai keadaan ekonomi Malaysia, beliau berkata, ramai pembuat keputusan PKS merasakan ekonomi digital akan menawarkan banyak peluang untuk PKS.

Oleh itu mereka ingin melihat bajet akan datang memberi tumpuan untuk membantu PKS dengan transformasi digital ini dari segi infrastruktur, pelaburan, latihan, insentif cukai serta pelbagai inisiatif kerajaan yang lain.

Beliau berkata, walaupun ekonomi ketika ini lembap, PKS tetap positif mengenai prospek jangka panjang Malaysia.

“Ini menunjukkan pemilik PKS percaya kita sedang melalui tempoh yang sukar sebelum ekonomi kembali pulih,” katanya.

“Asas untuk ekonomi Malaysia yang kukuh, iaitu kestabilan, kepelbagaian dan ketahanan masih wujud. Pertumbuhan KDNK kini serendahempat peratus dan pembuat keputusan PKS menjangka kita akan kembali mencatat enam peratus dalam beberapa tahun akan datang,” tambahnya.


Bajet 2017 juga dijangka merancakkan lagi momentum perkembangan tahunan bagi mencapai matlamat penggal pertengahan yang ditetapkan Rancangan Malaysia Ke-11 (RMK11).

Ia juga dijangka menyasarkan kumpulan B40 dan M40 dan kerajaan dilihat akan meneruskan usaha membantu kebajikan kumpulan berkenaan menerusi pemberian Bantuan Rakyat 1 Malaysia (BR1M) serta menangani kebimbangan mengenai perumahan mampu milik.

RHB Research dalam nota penyelidikannya, menjangkakan peningkatan peruntukan BR1M akan ditambah bagi merangsang perbelanjaan pengguna.

Firma penyelidikan itu juga percaya kerajaan akan mengumumkan perbelanjaan bajet lebih tinggi bagi 2017 berbanding pada tahun lepas.

Bagi menggalakkan usaha pemilikan rumah, kerajaan berkemungkinan bertindak melonggarkan kaedah penilaian pinjaman, meningkatkan pengeluaran caruman Akaun 2 Kumpulan Wang Simpanan Pekerja (KWSP) serta memperkenalkan lebih banyak skim Perumahan Rakyat 1Malaysia.


Antara kebimbangan disuarakan menyentuh aspek gaji lebih rendah serta pengurangan peruntukan bagi pendidikan pada tahun lepas.

Menurut Institut Penyelidikan Khazanah (KRI), gaji rendah serta pengangguran belia sememangnya membimbangkan selain peningkatan mendadak harga makanan berbanding inflasi secara menyeluruh.

Malah, berdasarkan laporan Keadaan Isi rumah II KRI membabitkan pembangunan kesejahteraan isi rumah bagi tempoh antara 2012 dan 2014, pertumbuhan pendapatan isi rumah Malaysia tidak dipacu oleh pertumbuhan gaji dan pendapatan.

Bagi tempoh 2012 hingga 2014, purata pendapatan isi rumah meningkat kepada Kadar Pertumbuhan Tahunan Terkumpul (CAGR) masing-masing sebanyak 10.8 peratus dan 12.4 peratus, namun kadar pertumbuhan nominal gaji dan pendapatan terbukti lebih perlahan pada 3.3 peratus.

Berdasarkan statistik baru-baru ini, median gaji di Malaysia pada 2015 adalah RM1,600 sebulan.

Ia turut membangkitkan aspek kewangan isi rumah yang terus berdepan tekanan dengan nisbah hutang isi rumah daripada KDNK adalah 89.1 peratus pada 2015 yang mana sebahagian besar beban hutang itu membabitkan pembiayaan bagi pembelian rumah.

Laporan KRI itu turut menunjukkan pekerjaan yang berteraskan kemahiran menawarkan gaji lebih tinggi, namun banyak syarikat Malaysia sebaliknya mengakui berdepan kesukaran mendapatkan modal insan yang memiliki kepakaran sedemikian.


Bank Dunia telah menyatakan keperluan untuk pembaharuan struktur dalam Malaysia ekonomi terutamanya dalam modal insan, liberalisasi dan daya saing selaras dengan aspirasi negara untuk bergerak ke arah sebuah negara berpendapatan tinggi.

Oleh itu, Malaysia tidak boleh berpuas hati dengan kejayaan dan melihat kebimbangan yang dibangkitkan berikutan laporan Forum Ekonomi Dunia 2016-2017 baru-baru ini, yang menunjukkan penurunan ranking daya saing global Malaysia pada kedudukan ke-25 daripada 18 pada tahun lepas.

Masih terdapat keperluan untuk melihat bidang yang memerlukan perhatian lanjut dan penambahbaikan bagi meningkatkan keyakinan dalam kalangan pelabur termasuk kepentingan amalan tadbir urus untuk menghalang sebarang kemungkinan ketirisan dalam kewangan dan bajet kerajaan.

Dalam Bajet 2016, peruntukan berjumlah RM267.2 bilion, dengan RM215.2 bilion adalah untuk perbelanjaan mengurus, RM50 bilion untuk perbelanjaan pembangunan dan baki RM2 bilion untuk simpanan luar jangka.

Sementara itu, bajet yang ubah suai, telah menggariskan 11 langkah penyusunan semula untuk memastikan ekonomi dan kewangan kekal pada trajektori yang tepat.

Mengenai perbelanjaan pembangunan, tumpuan akan diberikan kepada projek-projek dan program dengan kesan pengganda yang tinggi, kandungan import yang rendah dan fokus terhadap kesejahteraan rakyat.

Projek-projek yang akan diberi keutamaan termasuk pembinaan rumah mampu milik, hospital, sekolah, jalan raya dan pengangkutan awam serta keselamatan manakala projek lain dalam kajian akan dijadualkan semula.

Langkah ini dijangka dapat mengurangkan komitmen tunai sehingga RM5 bilion.

RHB Research menganggarkan peruntukan sebanyak RM45 bilion dalam perbelanjaan pembangunan kasar bagi 2017, lebih rendah daripada unjuran RMK11 tetapi masih jauh lebih tinggi daripada anggaran sebanyak RM40 bilion pada 2016.

“Peningkatan dalam perbelanjaan pembangunan kasar berkemungkinan akan memberi manfaat kepada industri pembinaan secara umum dan mengurangkan kesan daripada pelaksanaan cukai barang dan perkhidmatan serta perbelanjaan modal yang lebih perlahan oleh perniagaan berikutan harga minyak yang rendah dan persekitaran ringgit lemah,” kata RHB Research.

Antara projek-projek infrastruktur yang dirancang atau sedang dilaksanakan termasuk projek keretapi laju Kuala Lumpur-Singapura (RM34.8 bilion), Aliran Transit Massa (MRT) Lembah Klang (MRT2) dan Transit Aliran Ringan 3 (LRT3) (masing-masing RM36 bilion dan RM9 bilion), landasan keretapi dari Gemas ke Johor Bharu sepanjang 197 kilometer, lebuh raya Pan Borneo di Sarawak dan rancangan pembinaan ribuan kilometer jalan baru di kawasan luar bandar.

“Bagaimanapun, sesetengah projek infrastruktur ini seperti projek MRT dan LRT, dilaksanakan melalui pembiayaan yang tidak dimasukkan dalam imbangan kira-kira,” jelas RHB Research.

Oleh itu, pada asasnya, Bajet 2017, akan berusaha untuk memenangi hati rakyat semasa keadaan yang tidak menentu berikutan faktor luaran, sebagaimana kata-kata Presiden Amerika Syarikat Abraham Lincoln, “semua manusia berhak mendapat peluang yang sama untuk meraih kekayaan “.

Bajet 2017 tentunya akan mencergaskan lagi negara dan ekonomi.



The fact is that despite the economic growth steadily 4-4.5% the past seven years, the Federal Government deficit against GDP has been on the constant angle of reduction.

It simply translate that the Federal Government has been borrowing less to achieve the desired socio economic development programs sustainable to promote steady GDP growth.

This is far from Fourth Prime Minister Tun Dr. Mahathir’s suggestion of the nation is spiralling into a “failing economy”. The first half of 2016, the GDP stands at RM590 billion. The industrial production index is 125 (2010 as 100 base point). The employment index is almost 97% of workforce.

The surplus of the current account for the first half is RM6.9 billion.

When Prime Minister Najib took over the helm of the nation, within one year he introduced the Economic Transformation Plan (ETP). The Federal Government will no longer be over reliant on oil and gas as the single largest revenue contributor.

In hindsight, his fiscal strategy is very much demonstrated today.

*Updated 1800hrs

20th October 2016

Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak today outlined the major themes of the 2017 Budget that he will deliver to Malaysia’s parliament tomorrow.
Noting that some commentators have said this will be a General Election Budget, the Prime Minister instead stated:

*“This is a commitment Budget. Others may put short-term political gain first, but this government will not.* ‎

*“We commit to ensuring that the economic fundamentals of the nation remain resilient and strong – including policy on deficit targets‎, spurred economic activity, and the long-term health of the financial system.* ‎

*“We commit to being prudent and creative in optimising expenditure, to ensure delivery for the people.*‎

*“And we commit to a comprehensive, inclusive Budget that will fulfil our promises to the people.”*‎

Noting that during a year when advanced economies are expected to register growth of only 1.6 percent, Malaysia’s economy is on course to grow between 4 and 4.5 percent, the Prime Minister said: ‎

*“Despite the challenging global environment, the measures we introduced in last year’s Budget have helped ensure that the economy remains resilient and continues to grow. We have a plan, and it is working.*‎

*“We will continue to ensure economic indicators – such as inflation levels, growth rates and debt levels – remain strong and resilient, reflecting the core fundamentals of the economy.* ‎

*“Despite fiscal pressures, inflation has been kept at low levels, and the Malaysian people as a whole are better off today than they were a year ago. Indeed, we are now an upper middle income country.*‎

*“We continue to fulfil our promises to the people in a manner that is fair and inclusive. We are on the right trajectory, with the economy expected to improve still further in 2017 with growth of up to 5 percent.*‎


*“At the same time, we recognise that there are challenges. We must put in place policies that address long-term structural changes, and will continue our efforts to improve the Bottom 40 as well as the Middle 40. Our focus is on both the people economy and the public economy. The overall happiness and welfare of the people is key objective.”*‎


The Prime Minister said he would make further announcements on infrastructure, development, public transport and health, fiscal incentives for small and medium enterprises, and human capital and skills training. He said:‎


*“In line with our commitment to put the people first; we intend to accelerate economic growth, empower human capital, drive education, increase connectivity, strengthen inclusive development and improve public service delivery.”*‎

In order to do so, the Prime Minister said that a major focus of the 2017 Budget will be on raising the disposable income of the rakyat; encouraging upscaling, reskilling and entrepreneurship training; mitigating the rising cost of living; providing more affordable houses, and funds for maintenance; substantial measures on education; and allocations for the provision of quality healthcare services.

The Prime Minister concluded by saying:
*“The safety and security of all Malaysians remains my biggest priority. We will intensify our efforts and allocate more resources to our fight against extremism and crime.”*‎


*For more information:*
Please see
During the Budget speech:
Live stream on http://www.NajibRazak.com
Live stream on Najib Razak Facebook –
Live Tweets on Najib Razak Twitter (Bahasa Malaysia) –
Live Tweets on PMO Malaysia (English) –
After the Budget Speech 
Full text of speech immediately available (Bahasa Malaysia and English) –
Explanatory infographics – or Najib Razak Email (subscribe via

Published in: on October 19, 2016 at 23:59  Comments (1)  

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One CommentLeave a comment

  1. PM Najib’s performance in managing the economy in the first seven years of premiership is rather impressive, even taking Dr Mahathir’s first seven years’ performance.
    It is a fact that Najib’s transformation policies did bring about steady reduction of annual budget deficit.
    Comparatively to Dr Mahathir’s time his first budget saw a 16.3% deficit. six years later was brought down to -7.5%.
    When he first started, the Malaysian Govt debt is 54% of GDP. Within six years, it shot up to 103.4% of GDP. 62% of that public debt was in foreign currency.
    That simply translate Dr Mahathir borrowed 64% of GDP from foreigners.
    Foreign reserves than was only at USD6billion. There was a minus current account. Then again, in Dr Mahathir’s first year as PM, the current account was at -13.4%.
    How could the economy today is a “Failed state”?
    There are more people working. The BOP in the current account is good. The unemployment rate is a little over 3%. It simply means those who are unemployed is by choice.

    Income per capita is all time high.
    Even market capitalisation of Bursa Malaysia is RM1.8 trillion. The foreign reserve is a healthy near USD100b.

    The Malaysian economy is on-going concern. It’s evidently clear.

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