It is in the numbers

Much ado about many quarters making a big fuss about the over simplication of BN only managed to obtain 47% of votes at the 13GE, thus Prime Minister Dato’ Sri Mohd. Najib Tun Razak and Barisan Nasional do not enjoy the majority support of Malaysians.

The fact is that, Malaysian democracy is based on the ‘First Past Post’ system Westminister-styled Constitutional Monarchy where the number of seats obtained in the Dewan Rakyat is the determining factor for His Majesty Seri Paduka Baginda Yang DiPertuan Agong to invite and form a government right after a general election.

British Prime Minister Theresa May this morning (GMT) announced that she would go to the House of Commons tomorrow hoping to get 2/3 majority from MPs so that the ruling of the Fixed Term Parliament Act could be put aside and a general election could be called on 8 June 2017.

New York Times have the transcript of Prime Minister May’s announcement at Number Ten this morning:

Theresa May Announces Early Election

Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain announced on Tuesday that she would call an early election, seeking to strengthen her government’s mandate while it negotiates the country’s withdrawal from the European Union.

Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain called on Tuesday for a general election, which she had previously ruled out. Read a transcript of her remarks, as released by the Conservative Party in Britain.

I have just chaired a meeting of cabinet where we agreed that the government should call a general election to be held on the 8th of June. I want to explain the reasons for that decision, what will happen next and the choice facing the British people when you come to vote in this election. Last summer after the country voted to leave the European Union, Britain needed certainty, stability and strong leadership, and since I became prime minister, the government has delivered precisely that. Despite predictions of immediate financial and economic danger, since the referendum we have seen consumer confidence remain high, record numbers of jobs, and economic growth that has exceeded all expectations.

We have also delivered on the mandate we were handed by the referendum result. Britain is leaving the European Union and there can be no turning back. And as we look to the future, the government has the right plan for negotiating our new relationship with Europe. We want a deep and special partnership between a strong and successful European Union and a U.K. that is free to chart its own way in the world. That means we will regain control of our own money, our own laws and our own borders, and we will be free to strike trade deals with old friends and new partners all around the world.

This is the right approach and it is in the national interest, but the other political parties oppose it. At this moment of enormous national significance, there should be unity here in Westminster, but instead there is division. The country is coming together, but Westminster is not. In recent weeks, Labour have threatened to vote against the final agreement we reach with the European Union, the Liberal Democrats have said they want to grind the business of government to a standstill, the S.N.P. say they will vote against the legislation that formally repeals Britain’s membership of the European Union and unelected members of the House of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way. Our opponents believe because the government’s majority is so small that our resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course.

They are wrong, they underestimate our determination to get the job done, and I am not prepared to let them endanger the security of millions of working people across the country, because what they are doing jeopardizes the work we must do to prepare for “Brexit” at home, and it weakens the government’s negotiating position in Europe. If we do not hold a general election now, their political game playing will continue, and the negotiations with the European Union will reach their most difficult stage in the run-up to the next scheduled election. Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of “Brexit,” and it will cause damaging uncertainty and instability to the country.

So we need a general election and we need one now, because we have at this moment a one-off chance to get this done while the European Union agrees its negotiating position and before the detailed talks begin. I have only recently and reluctantly come to this conclusion. Since I became prime minister, I have said there should be no election until 2020, but now I have concluded that the only way to guarantee certainty and stability for the years ahead is to hold this election and seek your support for the decisions I must take.

And so tomorrow I will move a motion in the House of Commons calling for a general election to be held on the 8th of June. That motion, as set out by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, will require a two-thirds majority of the House of Commons. So I have a simple challenge to the opposition parties. You have criticized the government’s vision for “Brexit,” you have challenged our objectives, you have threatened to block the legislation we put before Parliament. This is your moment to show you mean it, to show you are not opposing the government for the sake of it, to show that you do not treat politics as a game.

Let us tomorrow vote for an election; let us put forward our plans for “Brexit” and our alternative programs for government, and then let the people decide. And the decision facing the country will be all about leadership. It will be a choice between strong and stable leadership in the national interest, with me as your prime minister, or weak and unstable coalition government, led by Jeremy Corbyn, propped up by the Liberal Democrats who want to reopen the divisions of the referendum, and Nicola Sturgeon and the S.N.P.

Every vote for the Conservatives will make it harder for opposition politicians who want to stop me from getting the job done. Every vote for the Conservatives will make me stronger when I negotiate for Britain with the prime ministers, presidents and chancellors of the European Union. Every vote for the Conservatives will mean we can stick to our plan for a stronger Britain and take the right long-term decisions for a more secure future.

It was with reluctance that I decided the country needs this election, but it is with strong conviction that I say it is necessary to secure the strong and stable leadership the country needs to see us through “Brexit” and beyond. So tomorrow, let the House of Commons vote for an election, let everybody put forward their proposals for “Brexit” and their programs for government, and let us remove the risk of uncertainty and instability and continue to give the country the strong and stable leadership it demands.

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It is a strategic political move for Prime Minister May, of taking the Conservative party inherited from Prime Minister David Cameron last summer despite a narrow 2015 GE win.

He summarily resigned when the British public decided from Britain to leave European Union (Brexit) in a referendum.

Prime Minister Cameron came to power in the May 2010 GE by forming a coalition with the Liberal Democratic party, because Conservative do not enjoy a clear majority to be invited to form a government by Queen Elizabeth.

Prime Minister May is maximising the opportunity as Conservative strongest opposition Labour is in conundrum where the weak leadership of the leftist leaning Jeremy Corbyn is highly popular amongst majority of his own party’s MPs.

As such, political analysts are bent on Conservative to do better than the May 2015 GE, where Prime Minister Cameron only managed to obtain 36.9% of votes casted translated in 331 MPs out of the 650 seat House of Commons.

YouGov.uk latest poll:

Yougov.uk early poll after PM May’s announcement for 8 June 2017

If the projection of Conservative getting 44% of votes which could translate to 395 MPs in the House of Commons and a clear 140 seat majority, then Prime Minister May would enjoy the control of over 60% of the House of Commons.

That is even bigger than Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s 1983 GE win, which was after the pumped-up feeling with Britain’s win in the Falklands War the spring the year before.

It is interesting to extrapolate that on to the Malaysian political scenario. at 13GE in May 2013, BN under Prime Minister Najib obtained 47.4% votes translated into 133 MPs in the 222 seat Dewan Rakyat, a clear 54 seat majority over aggregated Opposition MPs.

Yet, there are quarters making a fuss about Prime Minister Najib not having majority popular votes. BN won a 54 majority over the Opposition and control 60% of Dewan Rakyat in the current 13th Parliament.

Ceteris paribus, even if Prime Minister Najib manage to maintain BN’s exact same numbers in the next 14GE,  he would still be invited by His Majesty SPB YDP Agong to form a government even before the 14th Parliament is convened.

Political analysts are making a guesstimate 14GE would be held in six months time.

Taking into consideration that there is a rebellion within DAP where grassroots are not happy with Lim Kit Siang for his gross overstaying and alliance with half-a-century nemesis Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad and Penang Chief Minister and party Secretary General Lim Guan Eng’s corruption case.

The recent resignation of four DAP Yang Berhomats and several Branch Charimen is a clear demonstration that the rebellion is snowballing into something ugly.

On top of that, the de facto Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim is incarcerated and there is a serious power play within PKR top echelon. Deputy President and MB Selangor Dato’ Seri Azmin Ali is on a clear race against Vice President and Pandan MP Rafizi Ramli in the turf war.

PAS is no longer with the Opposition coalition, now named Pakatan Harapan and saw a major break up.  The splinter party PAN is without a strong grassroots footing. After all, Pakatan Rakyat especially PKR enjoyed PAS’s grassroots machineries in the past three GEs.

Dr Mahathir should not be a major consideration of the aggregate of threats that Prime Minister Najib is taking BN to face, especially now the glaring inconsistencies and contradictions of the former BN Chairman for twenty-two and a quarter years.

By many counts, Anwar Ibrahim was actually a bigger threat to Prime Minister Najib in 2013.

Projections are made with numbers, which are derived by the complex aggregate of various analysis, patterns and matrix formulated on current issues.

The numbers are on Prime Minister Najib’s side. Hence, his specific instruction for party machineries to be on ‘Alert Five’ and unapologetic incessant attacks on the Opposition.

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Published in: on April 18, 2017 at 23:59  Comments (5)