It is in the numbers, ad volarem 

There is no better way to tell a story but based on facts. Like, presenting it with numbers and the right interpretation.

An quick example is that many people are trying very hard and adamantly to highlight that Barisan Nasional (BN) votes obtained in the last GE did not warrant the mandate of forming the Government by the people.

Taking into argument is that BN only obtained 47.4% of votes casted.

However, the Constitutional Monarchy democratic system practiced here in the Westminster styled ‘First-Past-The-Post’, where number of MPs shall be the determining factor for His Majesty Seri Paduka Yang DiPertuan Agong to invite the party with most MPs in the Dewan Rakyat to form the Government.

GE results

BN’s best performance in GE was in 11GE, where the coalition of 13 parties controlled over 90% of Dewan Rakyat seats. Even that, BN only obtained slightly less than 65% of votes casted.

The last Parliament saw despite obtaining a little over 47% votes casted BN got 60% of the seats of Dewan Rakyat, which is 54 seats majority over the combined Opposition MPs.

BN lost 3% votes casted in the 13GE which only translated to 7 seats lesser in the Dewan Rakyat compared to the previous GE on 8 March 2008, dubbed ‘Political Tsunami’.

Of course the upcoming 14GE would be a very interesting to watch, considering since a year ago when BN and Prime Minister Dato’ Sri Mohd. Najib Tun Razak were at their lowest ebb, BN won handsomely in the Sarawak State Elections and Sungei Besar and Kuala Kangsar twin by-elections.

Many are still bent that BN won because the opposition votes split between PAS and PAN.

However, grieving widow and housewife Datin Mastura Yazid obtained 2,032 votes more than the aggregated votes of all her opponents. The previous BN MP Allahyarham Dato’ Ir Wan Khairil Anwar got 1,082 votes majority in 13GE.

YB Budiman Zohri’s 2,289 votes majority over the aggregated opposition votes is much improved compared to Deputy Minister Allahyarham Dato’ Noriah Kasnon’s 399 votes majority at 13GE.

This is not withstanding the fact that former BN Chairman and UMNO President for over 22 years Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad actively campaigned for both PAN candidates, despite the fasting month challenges.

Datin Mastura, then a widow in grief, never left her home during the entire campaign. She won purely on the effectiveness BN machinery.

So, a year has past and the political landscape somewhat changed more favourable towards BN and PM Najib’s advantage, with its own merits and many politically challenging issues such as 1MDB is no longer as prickly as what it was exactly a year ago.

The demerits on the Opposition side is also glaring. The ‘rebellion’ within DAP where 2MPs and 4 ADUNs quit, the break away between PAS and PKR, PKR’s internal fighting and teething problem which somewhat quickly developing worse for the new-kid-on-the-block PPBM.

DAP strategist Kluang MP Liew Chin Tong in his ‘Black Swan’ outlined these backbiting issues for the Opposition:

There are certainly challenges for the Opposition to overcome in order to precipitate change.

First, while there are serious discontents among the Malays, the Opposition must stand for something inspiring and visionary, and not depends solely on the anger against Najib as forward strategy. The Opposition must stand for more than just removing Najib. The economy and the well-being of the people should be the number one priority.

Second, the coming together of Bersatu and the Pakatan Harapan parties, namely Parti KeADILan Rakyat, Parti Amanah Negara, and Democratic Action Party, is a reconciliation of unlikely former foes. Who would imagine Dr. Mahathir and Anwar Ibrahim forming an alliance nearly 20 years after their very bitter fallout in 1998. But the coming together of the once political father-and-son can unleash huge energy if handled properly. After all, both Mahathir and Anwar are positive leadership figures compared to Najib, and they each appeal to some segments of the Malay electorate.

Third, to present a common agenda for Mahathir’s audience and DAP’s supporters is another challenge. If Mahathir and Bersatu go on a racial campaign, it will depress the support of non-Malay voters, which in turn creates a lose-lose situation for the entire Pakatan Harapan coalition. Likewise, the regime’s attack on Mahathir and Bersatu is that they are associated with the DAP. The presence of DAP can also depress the support for Bersatu and other Malay-based parties like PKR and Amanah if the Opposition is unable to break out of UMNO’s racial playbook, and articulate new narratives that can bridge all groups in a larger vision.

Fourth, PAS as UMNO’s “new friend”, as Zahid Hamidi calls them, is a reality, and the sooner a clear line is drawn between the genuine/official Opposition, Pakatan Harapan, and the pseudo “third force” of PAS, the better it is to condition the voters to vote along the line of those “for Najib”, and those “against Najib”.

Fifth, the ultimate challenge for the newly re-aligned Pakatan Harapan that included Bersatu, is that Najib could just exit the scene and take out the raison d’être of the Opposition and the anger in the community.

If this is to happen, can the Opposition survive this unlikely but not impossible Black Swan?

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Taking all that and other factors into consideration, the matrix would translate into a projection which is mathematically possible to do so.

That is not withstanding PM Najib’s administration in keeping up the boost of the ‘Feel Good Factor’, in the run up and continuous implementation of the SEA Games, 60th Merdeka celebrations and Special SEA Games.

It is on top on the many trade deals recently clinched with the super active Prime Minister Najib visits to China, India, Germany and reciprocity of King of Saudi and Bahrain and Crown Princes of Qatar and Japan.

Malaysian economic transformation plan (ETP) growth

The Malaysian economy has seen growth and sharper incline, since Prime Minister Najib launched his economic transformation plan and the various strategy, to drive the nation towards a high GNI nation in the impelementation and ad valorem of the Vision 2020.

The strategic economic agenda for the Malays and Indians, which are part of his economic transformation plan to bring Malaysians to the high income status, is a strategic boost.

In the final analysis, is in the numbers and directionally, it is plausible to plot a bullish projection.

Published in: on May 13, 2017 at 12:30  Leave a Comment