Projection of sentiments Vs facts

Gaming is more of a process and methodology of science and complex mathematics in the determination of the odds of winning the race against ‘sentiment and gut feel’ horse.

Joceline Tan’s Sunday Star column:

Columnists

Analysis

Sunday, 27 August 2017

Malay tsunami – fact or psywar?

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/08/26/23/17/mahathir-kit-siang.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=E08113E7D9CA01E27F8B4A9CF60994003E44AF17

Brickbats and bouquets: Lim’s assertion that the Mahathir factor will cause Kedah, Perak and Johor to fall has drawn mixed opinions ranging from applause and support to claims that the DAP leader is delusional.

Brickbats and bouquets: Lim’s assertion that the Mahathir factor will cause Kedah, Perak and Johor to fall has drawn mixed opinions ranging from applause and support to claims that the DAP leader is delusional.

DAP has been talking about a Malay tsunami that will carry Pakatan Harapan to power. But without PAS in the coalition, where is the giant wave of Malay votes going to come from? 

 

THERE are signs that DAP leader Lim Kit Siang is gearing up for another attempt at shock-and-awe in the coming general election.

The buzz around the opposition circles in Johor is that the man often described as the “DAP supremo” is eyeing the Johor Baru parliamentary seat. It will be his most risky political adventure ever because he will be going where he has never gone before, that is, contesting a Malay-majority seat.

Up till early this year, the Gelang Patah MP was exploring the possibility of returning to Penang. He had been making his presence felt at a string of state government functions, alongside his Chief Minister son and other state exco members.

He was testing the waters but the currents were not encouraging. He has since cut back his appearances in Penang and it looks like it is back to Johor for him. It also means that he is committed to Pakatan Harapan’s plan to capture Johor.

Johor Baru is one of those mixed seats with 52% Malays, 43% Chinese and 5% from other races. DAP will have unparalleled bragging rights if Lim, 76, takes the capital of Johor.

But he will have to ride on the Chinese vote. He will struggle in a one-to-one fight against Barisan Nasional because he is unlikely to win the Malay vote. But he will have an easier time if PAS jumps in and splits the Malay vote in a three-cornered fight.

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/opinion/columnists/analysis/2017/08/27/malay-tsunami-fact-or-psywar/~/media/2a36a135d79d40488150b8885da13ee8.ashx?h=330&w=350

Minister in the Prime Ministers Department Datuk Seri Dr Wee Ka Siong speaking in the press conference after the launching of The 60th Merdeka Mural at Jalan Genting Klang yesterday. IZZRAFIQ ALIAS / The Star. July 27, 2017.

Dr Wee: What is the hidden objective behind DAP’s Malay tsunami theory?

The Barisan side is aware of the danger ahead and there have been efforts to persuade Johor Baru MP Tan Sri Shahrir Samad to forget about his retirement plans and stay on to defend the seat.

It will be a thriller or, to borrow from Lim’s favourite slogan, a do-or-die contest. It will bring the Chinese out in droves to attend the DAP ceramah and to do their part to save Lim.

In fact, Lim’s political longevity has been a result of his instinctive ability to convince the Chinese that every election is a do-or-die mission to save Malaysia from one calamity or another. It is an over-used sales pitch but it seems to work for him.

His career for much of the 1980s and 1990s was about saving Malaysia from Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad although it is a different story now that the two old foes have become new friends.

Lim has also been talking about a Malay tsunami that will cause Kedah, Perak and Johor to fall to Pakatan in the general election.

He said the Malay tsunami will also enable Pakatan to win Putrajaya with 113 out of 222 parliamentary seats. It means a government holding on with a majority of only two seats which sceptics say will last maybe two weeks.

Lim did not define how the Malay tsunami would happen but his hypothesis seems to be based on the hope of a 10% Malay vote swing and 5% non-Malay vote swing.

The Malay tsunami story drew quite a bit of interest. The trouble was that most people had trouble believing it.

For instance, the common query was: Where is Pakatan’s Malay tsunami going to come from now that PAS is not around to deliver the Malay votes?

Former Election Commission chairman Tan Sri Abdul Rashid Abdul Rahman admitted that PAS is still a force to reckon with in Malay states.

“But we (Parti Pribumi) will play a leading role in taking Malay votes away from Umno,” said Abdul Rashid, who is now a vice-president of Parti Pribumi and who will be moving from running elections to contesting in an election.

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/opinion/columnists/analysis/2017/08/27/malay-tsunami-fact-or-psywar/~/media/d7c2ed10db384834a2eaa80a0e97c5ec.ashx?h=350&w=350

Khaw Veon Szu

Khaw: DAP’s claim of Malay wave is aimed at energising their Chinese base.

Lim, said a DAP insider, is banking on Dr Mahathir to neutralise the PAS influence and even to wipe out PAS in certain states like Penang.

“Kit Siang is not stupid, he does not trust Mahathir but he is putting his chips on Mahathir creating a political momentum,” said the insider.

A high-ranking DAP leader from Kuala Lumpur has however cautioned his party: “Much as we talk about a Malay tsunami, we have to make sure we don’t lose our Chinese tsunami.”

To political commentator Khaw Veon Szu, the Malay tsunami story sounds more like psywar than a prediction based on facts and findings.

“On what assumption would the Malay vote swing to Pakatan? Pakatan cannot talk about a Malay tsunami while ignoring the PAS factor. It’s a fatal omission, a big hole in their grand design,” said Khaw.

Dr Mahathir, said Khaw, is able to attract Malay votes to Pakatan but he also repels voters who cannot come to terms with his past.

“He will win some, he will lose some,” said Khaw.

Some think that Lim is either delusional or in self-denial. Others think that given his problematic image among the Malays, he is the wrong person to talk about a Malay tsunami and it could instead send the Malays running in the opposition direction.

“The tsunami thing is not aimed at the Malays but at their Chinese base. They can see that the Chinese base is softening around the edges and they need to energise their core support especially in Johor,” said Khaw.

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/opinion/columnists/analysis/2017/08/27/malay-tsunami-fact-or-psywar/~/media/e7df363c0a5442abb2b9af415b5a6642.ashx

Khaw: DAP’s claim of Malay wave is aimed at energising their Chinese base.

The Chinese electorate, said a think-tank head, has grown lethargic, fed-up and tired of the non-stop politicking.

“If you talk to the thinking Chinese, they are stunned that Mahathir can just cross over like that to become the leader of the opposition. When he starts talking about better governance, they become even more incredulous.

“This is not like Anwar Ibrahim. He was a victim, he went to jail and his reform narrative is more believable. Moreover, Mahathir has not uttered a word about moderation or about pushing back the Islamic agenda which is what the Chinese want to hear from a Malay leader,” said the think-tank head.

Given that PAS has a hardcore support of around 20% among the Malay electorate, the Malay vote swing is more likely to swing away from Pakatan in the general election.

The PAS propaganda that DAP is anti-Islam and anti-Malay has been quite relentless.

As for the non-Malay support, Pakatan captured about 85% of the Chinese vote in 2013. Lim’s hypothesis of an additional 5% swing means that he is expecting 90% Chinese support in the next general election which sounds terribly ambitious.

DAP’s quest in Johor goes beyond just an attempt to capture the state, its aim is also to take down MCA in Johor.

MCA deputy president Datuk Seri Dr Wee Ka Siong said the hidden objective behind DAP’s Malay tsunami theory is to compensate the Chinese who feel let down that DAP, which has the most seats, is unable to lead Pakatan whereas the party with only one Parliament and two state seats is sitting on top.

“They are telling the Chinese, you are the kingmaker because the Malay vote is spilt, you can play a pivotal role. They also need to justify why they have to work with the man whom they called a racist and other bad names. They need people to forget Mahathir’s past by telling them he can bring the Malay tsunami,” said Dr Wee.

So is Dr Mahathir the tsunami man?

Parti Pribumi is fortunate that it has not been tested like Amanah.

Many people had high hopes on Amanah, thinking it would replace PAS. Their ceramah were also drawing good crowds and they had started to venture into the Felda schemes. They seemed to be flushed with funds, their gatherings were filled with people in smart orange shirts.

But their image sank after the Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections. Amanah failed to command the Malay votes and was heavily dependent on DAP to bring in the Chinese votes.

Parti Pribumi’s test will only come in the general election and, in the meanwhile, most people are prepared to give it the benefit of the doubt.

But not Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz though.

“What Malay tsunami? It’s just a DAP dream, the Malay votes will be divided between Umno and PAS. Even in Pagoh, they (Parti Pribumi) are going to lose there. You think PAS will give them a free ride over there?” he said.

The Tourism and Culture Minister, who rarely minces his words, said Mahathir will lose if he tries to contest in Langkawi and that Barisan may win even more seats in Johor, Perak and Kedah in the event of three-cornered fights. DAP’s Malay tsunami story has quite little to do with the Malay audience and a lot to do with keeping the Chinese tsunami rolling through the next general election


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/opinion/columnists/analysis/2017/08/27/malay-tsunami-fact-or-psywar/#AOPujF28FdLSmMr1.99

****************

The senior The Star writer’s analysis is corroborated by Minister of Communication and Multimedia Dato’ Seri Dr Salleh Said Keruak’s opinion, on the same subject matter.

Sunday, August 27, 2017

ANALISIS ONG KIAN MING MENARIK TETAPI JAUH TERSASAR

Salleh Said Keruak

1. Ong Kian Ming dalam analisisnya tentang PRU ke-14 menyatakan akan berlaku 15% peralihan undi Melayu kepada Pakatan Harapan seperti mana yang berlaku pada tahun 1999 dan 2008.

2. Hujah beliau mudah: setiap kali parti UMNO berpecah akan menyebabkan orang Melayu menolak BN.  Ini dapat dilihat dalam PRU 1999 apabila peralihan undi Melayu berlaku sebanyak 27%.  Dalam PRU 2008 pula, BN hilang majoriti dua pertiga apabila 6% lagi pengundi Melayu beralih menyokong pembangkang.

3. Pertanyaannya, bolehkah dicapai 15% peralihan sokongan Melayu ini?  Kian Ming kata tidak mustahil jika melihat kepada sikap pengundi Melayu dalam PRU 1999 dan 2008, dan juga jika melihat kepada munculnya PPBM.

4. Benarkah andaian Ong Kian Ming tersebut?  Hasil semakan saya kepada data lepas mendapati analisis Kian Ming tersasar dari fakta sebenar.

5. Untuk analisis yang lebih tepat, kita perlu melihat senario tahun 1988-1990.  Situasi inilah yang perlu dijadikan sandaran untuk membuat analisis perubahan undi Melayu kerana sejarah perpecahan politik Melayu bermula di sini.

6. Pada tahun 1988, UMNO berpecah setelah Dr. Mahathir dan Tengku Razaleigh bertanding merebut jawatan Presiden UMNO.  Selepas pemilihan itu, kumpulan Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah keluar daripada UMNO dan menubuhkan parti Semangat 46.

7. Dalam PRU 1990, S46 bergabung dengan PAS, HAMIM, DAP dan PBS, namun adakah pakatan pembangkang memenangi pilihan raya tersebut?  Jawapannya tidak.

8. Kemerosotan pengundi Melayu hanya 2.4% berbanding PRU 1986. S46 pula hanya memenangi 8 kerusi parlimen daripada 61 kerusi yang ditandinginya. Bagi peringkat DUN pula, S46 hanya memenangi 19 kerusi daripada 152 kerusi yang ditandingi.

9. Situasi tersebut sama seperti hari ini yang mana UMNO mengalami perpecahan dengan melahirkan PPBM.  Maka, bagaimana dengan PRU ke-14 nanti?

10. Jika melihat kepada realiti sekarang, sukar untuk berlaku peralihan undi Melayu lagi.  Dalam PRU 1999, senario berlakunya peralihan undi Melayu ketika itu adalah berbeza dengan situasi sekarang.  Tahun 1999, negara baharu diserang krisis kewangan dan ada isu mata lebam.  PRU ke-14 isu tahun 1999 dan 2008 sudah jauh kita tinggalkan.

11. Analisis saya sebelum ini telah menggariskan lima faktor kenapa anak muda akan menyokong BN dalam PRU ke-14 nanti.  Dalam analisis ini, jika mahu bersandarkan kepada hujah “UMNO berpecah maka Melayu akan mengalih sokongan kepada pembangkang,” itu adalah generalisasi.

12. PRK Sungai Besar dan Kuala Kangsar telah membuktikan walaupun UMNO berpecah, parti pembangkang masih tidak mampu menumbangkan BN.  Tambahan pula, parti pembangkang kini mempunyai pecahan parti Melayunya sendiri seperti PAN yang lahir hasil perpecahannya dengan PAS.  PPBM dan PAN juga adalah parti baharu yang masih tidak mendapat sokongan meluas.  Politiking pembangkang yang terlalu banyak juga menyebabkan rakyat bosan kerana rakyat mahu terus bergerak ke depan membangun Malaysia yang maju dan sejahtera.

13. Maka, kenyataan bahawa akan berlaku perubahan 10-15% undi Melayu kepada pembangkang dalam PRU ke-14 adalah jauh tersasar.

************

The fact that the Opposition is facing a lot compounding issues, should be factored.

The current corruption case in the hearing process against Chinese Chauvinist Secretary General and Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng opened the horizon to the Chinese voters, especially Penangites.

PKR Vice President and Chief Strategist Rafizi Ramli is also in trouble,  to pay the suit he lost and upcoming criminal charges against him which include possession of state secret.

In Selangor, trouble is brewing after the bit by bit revelation with regards to the abuse and leakages from various state owned GLCs, said to be in RM billions.

The internal conflict faced by all the component parties within Pakatan Harapan itself is glaring to their own supporters or the fence-sitters, which are likely to throw their mandate to the ‘Gang of Four’.

They have contradicted and backtracked their own battlecries.

The Malaysia Today analysis:

Rashid Rahman: The Reason For Bersih 2007

It is time the Chinese ask DAP what game they are trying to play. They blame Dr Mahathir for May 13 and they make him their Top Dog. They blame Anwar Ibrahim for messing with the Chinese schools and they make him their Prime Minister-in-waiting. They blame Rashid Rahman for election fraud and they make him the VP of PPBM. Is this a demonstration of how smart the DAP Chinese are?

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

No one can deny that the 2008 general election was the turning point for Malaysian politics. But then one must not over-simplify the reason for what happened in 2008. It is like saying WWII was triggered because Germany invaded Poland. Historians will tell you that WWII was trigged by WWI and the Treaty of Versailles that followed the end of the war and which the Germans simpan dendam for so many years.

Hence when Hitler came along to ‘avenge’ the injustice done to Germany and to restore German pride the Germans rallied behind him, never mind how crazy he may have been. As they say, never kick a man when he is down because he might just stand up again. And they kicked Germany after WWI when it was down so Germany rose back up again to take revenge.

Anyway, that is not what we want to talk about today. What we want to discuss is what made 2008 possible.

Rashid Rahman’s PERKASA is opposed to Bahasa Malaysia Bibles

There are many factors to any scenario. One of the factors is Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad ran a successful hate-campaign from June 2006 until Polling Day of March 2008 to convince Malaysians that Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi was incompetent (the ‘Fourth Floor Boys’ were actually the ones running the country), was literally sleeping on the job (sleeping during meetings, during dinner functions, and even while having his photograph taken during the APEC conference), corrupt (his son Kamal and son-in-law Khairy Jamaluddin were doing crooked deals), was a Singapore agent (which is why he did not want to build the ‘Crooked Bridge’), and many more.

Mahathir mobilised all the bloggers from both sides of the political divide and launched his social media attack on the Prime Minister, Umno, and Barisan Nasional. Meanwhile, Zainuddin Maidin a.k.a. Zam told Umno that the social media was no threat to the government. The kids use the internet only to play games and to look for cheap airline tickets, Zam said. So they can ignore the social media. Later, of course, during the post mortem, they identified the internet as one of the biggest factors for the beating the government received in the 2008 general election.

Rashid Rahman of PERKASA upholds Malay supremacy and Malay political power

Another factor for the 2008 general election result was the November 2007 Bersih march to Istana Negara. A group of NGOs and political activists, also from both sides of the political divided, marched to Istana Negara to hand over a petition to His Majesty the Agong calling for electoral reforms.

The SPR or the Election Commission was running fraudulent elections where the ruling party needs to win only 45% of the popular votes to stay in power whereas the opposition needs to win at least 60% of the popular votes to get into power. Even when they win 55% of the votes the opposition still cannot get into power.

Well, ‘fraudulent elections’ is what the opposition calls it. The proper terminology is gerrymandering, and there is no crime in that. Even in the US and the UK this is being done and this is not illegal even in the west. Further to that, there is the disparity between seats where one seat could be 20,000 voters and another could be 120,000 voters. Ideally the variance should be around 20% plus-minus and in some countries this is the law. In Malaysia, the variances are very large and that is not illegal at all.

The third bone of contention, of course, is postal votes, which many feel is no longer required due to many reasons.

Rashid Rahman, the man DAP hated most, is now DAP’s partner in PPBM

Anyway, these and many more have been bones of contention for the opposition and they tried to have a dialogue with the SPR since 2000 but the SPR tak layan. And the man who was heading the SPR from 2000 to 2008 was Tan Sri Abdul Rashid Abdul Rahman.

When asked what is the job of the SPR if not to conduct free and fair elections, they replied the job of the SPR is to ensure that the Malays do not lose political power. When asked why can’t they abolish the postal voting system, they replied if they do that then not a single Cabinet Minister can retain his or her seat.

Yes, this Rashid Rahman of SPR was one huge, arrogant, mother-fooker who the opposition hated like hell. If the DAP Chinese had it their way they would have taken a knife and cut Rashid Rahman’s throat. And the first Bersih march to His Majesty the Agong’s Palace in November 2007 was because Rashid Rahman was so fooking arrogant and refused to accept our petition calling for electoral reforms.

Since Rashid Rahman told us to fook off and refused to see us we had no choice but to bring this matter to His Majesty the Agong. Even then Rashid Rahman told us to fook off and said that His Majesty the Agong has no business interfering in administrative matters, especially those involving politics.

READ: PPBM VP Tan Sri Abdul Rashid: “A lot of damage has been done to the country”

Anyway, the elections were held in March 2008 and history was made. And in December 2008 Rashid Rahman retired from the SPR and everyone was so happy that finally that mother-fooker was gone and maybe now we can talk to the SPK and discuss electoral reforms.

And what happened to Rashid Rahman after he retired from the SPR?

Have you not heard? Rashid Rahman is now the Vice President of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM). He is now in the party that is DAP’s partner in Pakatan Harapan and his boss, Mahathir, is the ‘Top Dog’ of the opposition.

READ: Ex-EC head joins Perkasa to boost Malay power

Can you see how things have become very interesting? Rashid Rahman, one of the most hated persons in Malaysia, whose job was to rig the elections to make sure that Umno stays in power and that Malays will never lose political power, is now DAP’s partner. According to DAP, if not because of Rashid Rahman, Pakatan Rakyat would already have come to power back in 2008. But now they cannot ever come to power.

It is time the Chinese ask DAP what game they are trying to play. They blame Dr Mahathir for May 13 and they make him their Top Dog. They blame Anwar Ibrahim for messing with the Chinese schools and they make him their Prime Minister-in-waiting. They blame Rashid Rahman for election fraud and they make him the VP of PPBM. Is this a demonstration of how smart the DAP Chinese are?

****************

Another interesting fact is that Pakatan Harapan has yet to be unified in their thought who they should offer to the Malaysian voters as the ‘next Prime Minister’, despite going around proclaiming themselves as “The Government in Waiting”.

The most interest fact the absence of the congruent offering in economic and developmental plans and programs for Malaysia, to move forward amidst all the challenges and at least maintain the same trajectory, vector and momentum.

The representative young Pakatan Harapan to that agenda is obvious a hopeless voice!

 

 

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Published in: on August 27, 2017 at 14:00  Comments (4)  

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4 CommentsLeave a comment

  1. “This is not like Anwar Ibrahim. He was a victim, he went to jail and his reform narrative is more believable. Moreover, Mahathir has not uttered a word about moderation or about pushing back the Islamic agenda which is what the Chinese want to hear from a Malay leader,” said the think-tank head.”

    I’ve never heard about this political commentator, Khaw Veon Szu but, as SatD said, he must be STUPID OR SOMETHING.

    THIS IS THE MAN WHO WROTE TO THE LATE NIK AZIZ TO STOP HIM FROM IMPLEMENTING HUDUD.

    ON THE OTHER HAND UMNO UNDER NAJIB RAZAK VOTED UNANIMOUSLY WITH PAS FOR HUDUD IN KELANTAN.

    THE BN GOVERNMENT ALSO PAVED WAY FOR HADI’S PRIVATE BILL ON RUU 355 SOMETHING THAT THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT COULD DO BY THEMSELVES WITHOUT HAVING PAS SUPPORT.

    SO WHO IS THE ONE PUSHING THIS TALIBAN AGENDA?

  2. Salam Zakhir.

    You seems to have high regards for RPK, nowadays. If you forget, let me remind you that this fugitive, once swore SD, implying that Rosmah was at the scene where Altantuya was C4ed.

    So… like KJ, you’re against Perkasa too?

  3. […] In the final analysis, it is facts that prevail over sentiments, which include psywar. […]


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