Prophecy of doom: 2008 is a bad year!

2008

THE YEAR OF CONFUSION

DESPAIR AND EXTREME ANGER FOR MANY

INNOCENT AND HARWORKING WAGE EARNERS

A BLUNT MESSAGE WITH NO APOLOGIES

 

by Matthias Chang

FALSE HOPES ON 1st WEEK OF 2008

The 1st week of the New Year just ended for me today, the 6th January 2008 when I read the final pages of business news in the various Malaysian mass media.

Without exception, all contained absolute nonsense – bullshit and horseshit. For example, that the Composite Index of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange will surpass the 1,500 mark, ushering a year of plenty and a new era of prosperity. Wow! They must have just returned from Disneyland.

These so called experts have not the slightest idea as to what is going on in the world, specifically the financial tsunami that is sweeping across the globe. For the moment, I will not accuse them of deliberately misleading the hardworking wage earners.

Even Feng Shui Masters were called in aid to boost the Malaysian stock market and lay the groundwork for the Chinese punters (assholes) to gamble just before the Spring Festival (more commonly referred to as the “Chinese New Year”).

For a while I had thought that the internet community, especially the bloggers have what it takes to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. But they all got caught in their own manufactured “egos” and went off the tangent making all sorts of noise and diverting the attention of the public to the one and only issue that needed to be EXPOSED AND ADDRESSED – the FINANCIAL TSUNAMI that is sweeping across the globe and coming towards our shores. And making preparations for survival.

 

I have therefore come to the inevitable conclusion that the bloggers are either consciously helping the political establishment to mislead and confuse the people or that they are just plain assholes! A friend of mine advised me that I should not use the term “Assholes” in my writings and should I wish to do so, type A@#h*l@ or something to that effect so as not to put off my readers. Not one dared venture to write a well reasoned and researched article on the BIGGEST ISSUE OF 2007/2008.

However, I believe that we have gone past the need to be nice and polite when we are being screwed up by the Global Central Banks acting in concert with our governments.

 

WHERE IS THE CRISIS?

An asshole blogger that goes by the initials “FFT” keeps frothing and shouting, “Where is the crisis?” whenever he reads my articles. He assumes that by quoting him, I am taking him seriously or that I need to engage him in a debate. This is what I mean by a person having a “self-manufactured ego”.

I realised soon enough that if there was no such assholes like this “FFT” (why would anyone use two initials that is always associated with the four letter word? It must be his upbringing or the crowd that he keeps), I would have to invent him.

Why?

When someone asked such a silly question, “Where is the crisis?” he is actually displaying his appalling ignorance and that he cannot see beyond his disfigured nose.

Such a person takes the view that so long as there are cars on the streets, people going to the cinemas, housewives are still shopping in the markets, children are going to schools, and people can indulge in writing nonsense in the bloggersphere, there cannot be a crisis.

People like “FFT” have short memories or no memories.

During the Financial Crisis of 1997, weren’t there people who were still employed, cars on the streets, housewives shopping in markets, children going to school and people going to the cinemas? Fortunately, we did not have riots and blood on the streets as was the case in Thailand and Indonesia.

Yet, at the material time, Malaysia was on the verge of bankruptcy, Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea have to be bailed out by the IMF and World Bank, ASEAN’s currencies took a dive (Indonesia’s rupee went to 16,000 to one US$ at one point in time, Malaysian ringgit was at RM7 to the £ in December 1997) and banks throughout the region have to be restructured, some were left to die, while others were auctioned off to foreign funds.

Malay Jews in control of banking institutions were given priority and saved from ignominy and financial ruin by taxpayers.

Malaysian banks’s non-performing loans were lopped off to Danaharta. Public listed vehicles were de-listed and went to various corporate ICUs. Many were wipe out. Ask those that were retrenched whether it was a crisis!

I am sure “FFT” and the likes of him were still having their three meals, albeit nutritious and tasteful! Hence, their stupid attitude: “Where is the crisis?”

Can anyone say there was no financial crisis beginning June 1997? And we have yet to recover fully from the effects of that massive downturn.

 

STUPID, IGNORANT BANKERS & FINANCIAL MANAGERS

Many folks have asked me, “Why is the stock market doing well? The Index is not going south, so why should we be bothered and get out?”

A legitimate question and a good one at that! 

Recently, I wrote an article which explained in detail the consequences of massive debt / credit creation – DEBT 101 for those who were unfamiliar with monetary issues.

I have decided to refer this part of the article as – ECONOMICS 101 for those who are unfamiliar with issues relating to assets deflation and asset bubbles (or asset inflation). There is a correlation between debt / credit creation and asset bubbles. Please read my previous article for a refresher.

 

First Thing First.

When Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates to 1% and encouraged the housing boom in the USA, prices for houses shot up and this encouraged other economies to follow suit. Asset prices went up giving rise to the asset bubble that burst during the summer of 2007.

I had already explained that as a result of asset inflation, banks went crazy and unleashed a loose credit policy and as a result, all and sundry were borrowing from banks, some to speculate, others for investments in hedge funds, SIVs, merger and acquisitions etc. Consumers went on a spending spree. It was a new era of financial innovation. No more cycles of boom and burst.

When there are massive debts and no savings, sooner or later, the debts must be repaid. As there were no savings, repayments were hard to come by and finally the whole Ponzi scheme collapsed.

Massive defaults resulted in assets having to be disposed, but there were no buyers, so prices went south!

If you have been to a property auction sanctioned by a court order, you will know why.

IIlustration:  Property worth US$100,000. Owner owes bank US$120,000 being principal and accumulated interest. Court fixed a “reserve price” for the property to be auctioned. In this case e.g. US$100,000. Auction takes place. No buyer at that price. Bank goes back to court for a reduction in “reserve price” – US$90,000. Again, there were no buyers. The bank has a choice – go back and ask again for reduction of “reserve price” say to US$80,000 or call off the auction.

The end result is the same. The price of the property was lowered. Multiplied this by a million times and you will get a glimpse of the poblem.

 House prices have collapsed!!!!!!!!!

 

This is ASSET DEFLATION.

 
Houses used as security are mortgages. Therefore, such mortgages following from the drop in housing prices will also decline. The bonds issued and secured by such mortgages will also decline as their security can no longer be rated AAA.

There is therefore a BOND ASSET DEFLATION as well.

 

This is what that has been happening since the second quarter of 2007. Massive asset deflation! The bubble has burst!

 

The Final Burst

Punters of all shades and sizes borrow to “invest” (I called it gamble) in the stock market. They used the scrips (share certificates) as security for their borrowing. So if the par value is US$1 and the current price of that particular share is US15, banks usually allow the gambler to borrow up to 60% of the share price. Even more were loaned in the last few years!

What central banks have been doing and acting in concert with governments, is to artificially push up the prices of the shares in the stock market.  This is because, if the prices were to fall in tandem with the asset deflation outlined above, the banks have to called in the loans or the borrowers have to “top-up” with additionally security to make good the depreciation of the shares already pledged to the bank for the original loan.

The first week of 2008 has sent shock waves throughout the financial world as the Dow retreated dramatically.

If you had remain in the US stock market, you would have been summoned by your bank to “top-up” to make good the margin of depreciation in the shares that you have pledged to the bank. If you cannot top up, you are deemed to be in default and your shares pledged to the bank will be disposed. When massive amount of shares are being disposed to meet default liabilities, share prices will plunge and the index of the stock exchanges (Dow, FTSE, CAC or KLSE etc) will head south and crash)

THIS WILL BE SHARE ASSET DEFLATION.

Q.E.D. Elementary Watson, elementary!

 

HOW CAN THERE BE DEFLATION WHEN THERE IS INFLATION?

I have just explained to you what is asset deflation and how it arises.

Don’t get confused with increase in prices for foodstuff, gasoline and commodities – PRICE INFLATION.

As a result of the Federal Reserve’s policies of lowering interest rates coupled with asset deflation, the DOLLAR AS A CURRENCY DEPRECIATED (devalued).

Illustration: The main thing to remember is the issue of “Purchasing Power”. Say, at one time US$10 can buy you 3 pairs of shoes. Now, US$10 can buy only 1 pair of shoe. Therefore, the purchasing power of the US$ has decreased.

Multiply that example in the US$billions.

The Arabs have been selling crude in US$dollars and have amassed US$billions. For example at one time US50 was for one barrel of crude.  Therefore if US$10 can buy 3 pairs of shoes, US$50 can buy 15 pair of shoes.

But as a result of the devaluation of the dollar, US$10 can buy only 1 pair of shoes. Therefore, US$50 will buy only 5 pair of shoes. For the Arabs to buy more shoes, they need more dollars. Therefore, to buy 15 pair of shoes, they must have US$150. Therefore, they must sell US$150 per barrel of crude to maintain the parity of purchasing power when US$10 can buy 3 pair of shoes.

 

THIS IS PRICE INFLATION.

 

Many products are made from petroleum. So when petroleum price goes up, so would products derived there from as the costs in making these products have increased.

In time to come, as more and more people have less money to spend (same amount of wages, but lower purchasing power) they will buy less goods and services. Sellers faced with decreasing demand, will lower the prices (sales, bargains etc.) to attract buyers. This is already happening massively in USA in the last Christmas spree.

With increasing foreclosures, rising bankruptcies, credit card debts / defaults, more and more people will not be able to buy things. The “consumer boom” will collapse. In this final scenario, prices will generally collapse also. Businesses will close down, as there will be no demand for their products.

 

THIS IS PRICE DEFLATION.

 

2008 – THE COLLAPSE OF GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS

When there is asset deflation as described above, it is only a matter of time for the share asset deflation to follow. This is a given.

Using the Arabs petro-dollar above as an example, it follows that as an investor, if you had invested in dollars in the stock market, your US$dollar returns WILL BE PURCHASING LESS THAN BEFORE.

Like the Arabs, unless the share prices are shooting up and up enough to make up the depreciation of the dollar, sooner or later, you will have no choice but to get out of your “dollar investments” as they are not giving you’re the “real” returns when inflation is costed into the said invstments. When gamblers get out en masse from the stock market, what do you expect?

A massive down turn – the stock market will head south!

This is already happening in the first week of 2008!

The global investors will have to look for safe havens for the money. No way will they run to third world countries, with their inherent instability, even though in the short term, their currencies have appreciated. But their economies are too tied down with the US economy. Most of their currencies are also pegged to the US$!

There is only one real alternative – GOLD. In 2008 GOLD WILL HIT THE STRATOSPHERE.

But your ordinary hardworking wage earners don’t have the means and the know how to invest in Gold.

The economy will collapse as in 1997 but it will be much worst.

In that ultimate scenario, who do you think will get the blame?

When assholes cannot give any adequate answers and or resolve the problems, there will be blood on the streets.

Since I am the only one who has been consistently warning the people of the impending disaster and the only one who is talking sense (no apologies if you think that this is arrogance or conceit), may be, just maybe they will turn to me for answers as in the past.

 

Déjá vu 1997

 

Matthias Chang

Kuala Lumpur

6th January 2008